Let us pictorially illustrate the concept in Figure 1.21, where we start at state at time and after time it come back to state. If one observes closely the main difference with Figure 1.18 is the fact that here we denote the states while in Figure 1.18 it was the time which was depicted along the line.
The colour scheme in Figure 1.21 is quite easy to understand if we concentrate on the fact that it can be green line starting at position at and returning to position at for the first time. While the blue would denote that reaches position once at time and then again the stochastic process continues till it reaches position at for the second time. Continuing with the same logic we can have such visits to position many number of times but remembering that position is reached at , i.e., .
Then we have
, from which it is easy to note that
for
for .
Utilizing this two formulae we easily get
Furthermore through simple induction we can show that
So the probability that the systems ever returns to its original state is given
Hence
- fi = 1 Þ that the system returns to state in a certain number of steps
- fi = 0 Þ that the system never returns to state
- fi < 1 Þ that the system may or may not returns to state i in a certain number of steps
One can understand that these transitional probabilities are dependent on (i) initial and final states and (ii) time of transition from the initial to the final states, i.e., , where is of some function form of , as well as difference in time periods.
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