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So generalizing we can write
, , and so on.
Figure 1.18 thus shows how the stochastic process starts at state at time and finally goes to state at time . What is interesting to note it how does this transition takes place. A general understanding of the stochastic process movement would make it clear that the process could have arbitrarily been at state at say any point of time between and , i.e., , and the colour scheme of red, blue and green should make this arbitrary movement clear.
Using matrix notation we already have , such that , where it means the element in the matrix and not that we simply multiply pij X pij. Thus it means that . Similarly we have , hence .Thus generalizing we have and also .Here it must be remember that we are considering there is no structural breaks or change in the underlying distribution i.e., . If that occurs then some where we would have the transition probability matrix general structures as different, i.e., for t = m, m+1,…, m* we have as the underlying distribution, and afterwards from t = m*+1, m*+2,…, m*+n the distribution is
Hence the basic thing required is to know the one step transition matrix is pij.
If and are given then , i.e.,
, i.e.,
,
Thus we have the probability in terms of intermittent probability and the transition matrix |