Powerholders and media claim that movement has failed, discredit movement by highlighting and encouraging “negative rebel” activities, sometimes through agents provocateurs.

Public alienated by negative rebels. Risk of movement becoming a subcultural sect that is isolated and ineffective.

Movement goals of Stage 5:

Recognize movement progress and success. Counter “negative rebel” tendencies.
Recognize that movement is nearing Stage Six and pursue goals appropriate to that stage.

Stage 6: Winning Majority Public Opinion

The movement deepens and broadens.
The movement finds ways to involve citizens and institutions from a broad perspective to address this problem.
Growing public opposition puts the problem on the political agenda; the political price that some powerholders have to pay to maintain their policies grows to become an untenable liability.
The consensus of the powerholders on this issue fractures, leading to proposals from the powerholders for change (often these proposals are for cosmetic change).
The majority of the public is now more concerned about the problem and less concerned about the movement’s proposed change.
Often there is a new catalytic event (re-enacting Stage 4).

Movement transforms from protest in crisis to long-term struggle with powerholders to win public majority to oppose official policies and consider positive alternatives. Movement broadens analysis, forms coalitions. Many new groups involved in large-scale education and involvement. Official channels used with some success. Nonviolent actions at key times and places. Many sub-goals and movements develop. Movement promotes alternatives, including paradigm shift.

Powerholders try to discredit and disrupt movement and create public fear of alternatives. Promote bogus reforms and create crises to scare public. Powerholders begin to split.

Public: 60-75% of the public oppose official policies, but many fear alternatives. However, support for alternatives is increasing. Backlash can occur and counter-movements may form.

Movement goals:
Keep issue on social agenda.
Win over and involve majority of the public.
Activists become committed to the long haul.

Success

Stage 7: Success: Accomplishing Alternatives
Majority now opposes current policies and no longer fears the alternative.
Many powerholders split off and change positions.
Powerholders try to make minimal reforms, while the movement demands real social change.
The movement finally achieves one or more of its demands.
The struggle shifts from opposing official policies to choosing alternatives.
More costly for powerholders to continue old policies than to adopt new ones. More “re-trigger” events occur.

Movement counters powerholders’ bogus alternatives. Broad-based opposition demands change.
Nonviolent action, where appropriate.

Powerholders: Some powerholders change and central, inflexible powerholders become increasingly isolated. Central powerholders try last gambits, then have to change policies, have the policies defeated by vote, or lose office.

Public majority demands for change are bigger than its fears of the alternatives. Majority no longer believe powerholders’ justifications of old policies and critiques of alternatives.