Stage 3: Ripening Conditions

Recognition by the public of the problem and its victims slowly grows.
Pre-existing institutions and networks (churches, peace and justice organizations) lend their support.
Tensions build. Rising grassroots discontent with conditions, institutions, powerholders, and “professional opposition organizations” (e.g., large lobbying groups).
Upsetting events occur, including ones which “personify” the problem.
Perceived or real worsening conditions.

Movement: grassroots groups grow in number and size. Small nonviolent actions begin. Parts of progressive community won over, pre-existing networks join new cause.

Powerholders still favor existing policies and control official decision-making channels.

Public is still unaware of problems and supports powerholders. 20-30% oppose official policies.

Movement goals of Stage 3:
Educate/win over progressive community.
Prepare grassroots for new movement.
More local nonviolent actions.

Take-off

Stage 4: Take-Off

A catalytic (“trigger”) event occurs that starkly and clearly conveys the problem to the public (e.g., the killing of Matthew Shepard in 2000; 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident).
Building on the groundwork of the first three stages, dramatic nonviolent actions and campaigns are launched.
These activities show how this problem violates widely held values.
The problem is finally put on “society’s agenda”.
A new social movement rapidly takes off.

Movement enacts or responds to trigger event, holds large rallies and demonstrations and many nonviolent actions. A new “movement organization” is created, characterized by informal organizational style, energy, and hope for fast change. “Professional opposition organizations” sometimes oppose “rebel” activities.
Powerholders areshocked by new opposition and publicity, fail to keep issue off social agenda, reassert official line, and attempt to discredit opposition.

Public becomes highly aware of problem. 40-60% oppose official policies.

Movement goals of Stage 4:

Put issue on social agenda. Create a new grassroots movement.
Alert, educate and win public opinion.
Legitimize movement by emphasizing and upholding widely held societal values.

Waging the Movement

Stage 5: Movement Identity Crisis — A Sense of Failure and Powerlessness

Those who joined the movement when it was growing in Stage 4 expect rapid success. When this doesn’t happen there is often hopelessness and burn-out.
It seems that this is the end of the movement; in fact, it is now that the real work begins.

Movement: numbers down at demonstrations, less media coverage, long-range goals not met. Unrealistic hopes of quick success are unmet. Many activists despair, burn out, and drop out. “Negative rebel” and “naive citizen” activities gain prominence in movement.