Thus we have the following
Now if we have only and movement then the equation reduces to
Thus we should have an unique value of , say such that the following holds true: . In fact it can be easily proved for the case when we have only two sates, i.e., and , then .
Furthermore combining we can easily see that
Thus we have
and as one easily obtains
In general and it reflects the risk premium example. In case , then we operate in the risk free environment and in that case is termed as the risk-neutral probability measure. In general using this value of (whether risk free or not is immaterial) we can obtain the discounted expected value of the future claim.
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