Module 5: History of World Population Growth and its Impact on Society
  Lecture 17: Demographic Schism between Developed and Developing Countries and Future Prospects
 

 

Future is unpredictable. Different countries will have different demographic paths in the future. We can have various scenarios:

  • Universally low fertility, characteristic of the second phase of demographic transition and national governments worried about it, but not doing anything to raise fertility, leaving it to market forces, civil society and individuals

  • Universally low fertility, and national governments using ideology and political resources at their disposal, to encourage women to withdraw from work temporarily and produce the right number of children

  • While most parts of the world have low fertility, some countries, for cultural, religious, political or socio-economic reasons, continue to maintain moderate fertility levels and they fulfil the demographic need of the world community, partly or more than fully

  • There is another demographic transition and after reaching a below replacement fertility level, more and more countries move towards a replacement level fertility or higher fertility.

At the moment, it appears that in the future more and more countries will face the problem of fertility going below the replacement level.