FURTURE PROSPECTS
Table 5.8 shows the UN projections of world population and major regions. As per The State of World Population 2009 the world population is likely to reach the figure of 9.1 billion in 2050. There is a caveat here. It is not easy to make predictions of population. Their accuracy is based on several factors: accuracy of data on size and composition of population, fertility and mortality rates, and assumptions regarding future trends in fertility and mortality. The most difficult among them is to predict fertility.
TABLE 5.8: PROJECTIONS OF WORLD POPULATION AND MAJOR REGIONS
World/region |
Size of population (millions), 2009 |
Share in the world population, 2009 |
Projected population in 2050 |
Share in the world population, 2050 |
World |
6,829.4 |
|
9,150.0 |
|
More developed countries |
1,233.3 |
18.06 |
1,275.2 |
13.94 |
Less developed countries |
5,596.1 |
81.94 |
7,875.0 |
86.06 |
Least developed countries |
835.5 |
12.23 |
1,672.4 |
18.28 |
|
The above table shows that the share of developed countries in the world population is declining. Almost all the growth in the world population in the period 2009-2050 will take place in the developing countries only. Thus the share of developed countries which was more than 20 percent in the beginning of the Christian era, is going to decline to 14 percent and the share of developing countries will increase from less than 80 percent to 86 percent.
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