Technology development cycle
The development of a new technology follows a typical S-shaped curve [Figure 1.1.3(a)]. In its early stage, the progress is limited by the lack of ideas. A single good idea can make several other god ideas possible, and the rate of progress is exponential. Gradually the growth becomes linear when the fundamental ideas are in place and the progress is concerned with filling the gaps between, the key ideas. It is during this time when the commercial exploitation flourishes. But with time the technology begins to run dry and increased improvements come with greater difficulty. This matured technology grows slowly and approaches a limit asymptotically. The success of a technology based company lies in its capabilities of recognizing when the core technology on which the company’s products are based begin to mature and through an active R&D program, transfer to another technology growth curve [Figure 1.1.3(b)] which offers greater possibilities. |