To evaluate the effectiveness of a population policy the evaluators need a clear definition of whether the goal of the stated policy is to reduce the population growth rate (which depends on three things – fertility, mortality and migration), or fertility rate or mortality rate or all. This goal has to be clear, measurable and meaningful. Suppose the goal is to reduce fertility. Then the question is: should the government aim at reducing birth rate or total fertility rate or other measures of fertility (such as net reproduction rate)? A clear analysis is required to identify all factors on which the target indicators depend. For example, it is easier to reduce the total fertility rate than the birth rate because birth rate depends on both age specific fertility rates and age distribution of population. It is not in the hands of planners to change the age distribution of population. Further, reducing the population growth rate is a rather more difficult task. As discussed in earlier lectures, reduction in age specific fertility rates does not immediately reduce the growth rate of population and for several decades population would continue to grow despite reduction in total fertility rate.

A difficulty in the analytical and empirical separation of the effects of a population policy from those of development and modernization poses another serious problem before the planners and programme managers. The two processes may work in the same or different directions. Finally, a lack of appreciation for monitoring and evaluation of population programmes is another issue. The programme managers may not see the direct utility of evaluation studies. They too require expenditure of huge resources. In the absence of these studies, however, one cannot judge how effective the population policies are.

ARE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES MORE EFFECTIVE IN IMPLEMENTING POPULATION POLICY?

There is no doubt that developed countries are worried about low fertility, particularly because it causes aging. It not only raises the proportion of the old in the total population of the country, but it also causes aging among the aged, i.e., increasing proportion of very old (80+) among the old (say 60+). This requires an analysis of the causes of fertility decline.