Module 8: Population Theories
  Lecture 29: Demographic Transition Theory
 

 

For fertility to decline the couples must perceive:

  • A smaller family is better than a larger family

  • It is possible to decide how many children one should have

  • There are several methods of birth control that people are practising

  • There is at least one birth control method which is easily available, affordable, safe, legitimate, and acceptable

EVALUATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

Among all the theories DTT is most known to population sociologists but is also the most criticized theory. It suffers from a number of limitations: (a) it only summarizes the empirical experience of some, industrially advanced, countries but does not present a coherent theoretical framework to establish relationship between development and demographic transition; (b) it cannot be used for making predictions; (c) it completely ignores the role of migration; (d) it does not tell how much time the demographic transition will take; and (e) it does not explain the causes of changes in death and birth rates.

In the recent literature on demographic trends, social scientists are talking of second and third demographic transitions. The transition discussed above is called the first transition. Second demographic transition refers to a rapid fall in fertility to the below replacement level in the industrially advanced countries, mostly after a brief period of baby boom after World War II. The third transition refers to an increase in fertility in lowest low fertility countries whose mechanism is not yet understood. It is difficult to say whether societies will experience increased fertility after the second transition, and in what circumstances. This is a new issue. Today it confronts the developed countries. As and when the developing countries will achieve the replacement or below replacement level fertility, this issue will become important for them also.