BOX 6.3 : FUTURE POPULATION PROSPECTS

…it seems extremely unlikely that the country's population will not exceed 1.5 billion at some time in the coming decades. Indeed, a figure of about 1.6 billion seems fairly likely. And, while it is unlikely, even a figure approaching 1.7 billion cannot be ruled out. Personally I feel that a figure just short of 1.6 billion is most probable. And in this context it is worth noting that Natarajan and Jayachandran's projections (2001a, 2001b) - which also extend to the year 2051 – yield a figure of 1.646 billion. Moreover, the latest UN medium-variant (i.e. 'best-guess') projection puts the total population of India at 1.572 billion in 2050. The corresponding population figure for China then is only 1.462 billion (United Nations 2002).

Source: Dyson (2003)

TABLE 6.8: IN-MIGRATION BY PLACE OF BIRTH AND SEX: 2001