PRESENT ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA

According to NFHS 3 the following seven states have reached below replacement level fertility (TFR less than 2.1): Andhra Pradesh, Goa , Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab , and Sikkim . Three other states that have replacement level fertility (TFR of 2.1). There is a need to examine in depth what factors have led to below replacement level fertility in these diverse states and whether it is possible to design programmes for the high fertility states (such as Nagaland, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where TFR is 3.7 or above) based on lessons learnt from these states. Another issue is: Will fertility in these states stabilize at the present low levels or will it continue to decline? Are they going to experience a third demographic transition and move towards fertility rising to replacement level?

In this context, the case of low fertility in Himachal Pradesh is particularly interesting. Himachal Pradesh has some unique characteristics:

1. Himachal Pradesh has the lowest incidence of spousal physical or sexual violence (6 percent).
2. It also has the highest contraceptive prevalence rate (73 percent). What has made all this possible in Himachal Pradesh? In Himachal Pradesh, knowledge and availability of family planning methods are universal and, therefore, the unmet needs are minimum (7.3 percent).
3. Ironically, Himachal Pradesh is not at the top in terms of improvement in infant and child mortality, antenatal care or institutional delivery.
4. It has the lowest level of urbanization.