ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS

Coale and Hoover (1958) pioneered the modelling of demographic and economic variables through which they showed what the short term and long term effects of population growth on economic development are. Their model paved the way for large scale computer simulation models in population and development (Arthur and McNicoll, 1975). These models are developed on the basis of certain axioms, empirical relationships and theoretical understanding of the issues involved. The variables of the system are connected through mathematical equations and the parameters of the equations are estimated using the available data and appropriate estimation techniques. Predictions based on these models are correct to the extent that we have correct assumptions, accurate data, and appropriate estimation procedures. Error at any level may lead to error of an unknown magnitude in the results.